Smart Money Moves Before Breakfast

Your Premium Went Up Less. Your Deductible Didn't.

Everyone predicted marketplace premiums would double in 2026. They rose 58%. That got read as relief. Look at where the money went instead.

Open The Letter

See My Blind Spot

Open The Letter

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Average deductible · 2026

$2,759$2,759+$1,027

You pay firstPlan pays

Premium $113 → $178 a month

Sign-ups 23.1M, sharpest drop on record

The premium is the part you see every month. This is the part you only meet once, on a bad week.

Average marketplace deductible and average monthly premium payments net of tax credits, plan year 2026. KFF. $2,759 is last year's average, derived from the same two figures. The bar fades rather than ends: a year of medical bills has no ceiling.

What Was Traded

Two True Numbers, One Trick

What Was Predicted

114%

Average premium payments were projected to rise from $888 to $1,904 a year. That was KFF's analysis, published in September 2025, before the plan year started.

What Arrived

58%

Average premium payments rose from $113 to $178 a month. Both numbers are honest. Only one of them is what happened.

KFF attributes the difference to two things. Enrollees moved into plans with higher deductibles. And the households facing the steepest increases stopped buying coverage. Neither of those is a discount.

The Cheaper Plan Is Not Always The Cheaper Plan

One question decides it, and it is not the premium and not the deductible. It is which tier your subsidy attaches to. Answer it wrong and a $0 monthly premium can cost more in a single bad week than a year of paying full price. Almost nobody is asked this at enrollment.

What Was Traded

Two True Numbers, One Trick

What Was Predicted

114%

Average premium payments were projected to rise from $888 to $1,904 a year. That was KFF's analysis, published in September 2025, before the plan year started.

What Arrived

58%

Average premium payments rose from $113 to $178 a month. Both numbers are honest. Only one of them is what happened.

The Cheaper Plan Is Not Always The Cheaper Plan

Projection: KFF, September 2025. Outcome: KFF, plan year 2026.

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The Number Nobody Quoted

A Percentage Measured Across A Smaller Room

22.3M

paid marketplace coverage, 2025

22.3M

projected 2026, range 16.5–18.5M

−4.8M people

Effectuated coverage 2025 and projected 2026. KFF. Sign-up and effectuated coverage are different measures and are not compared here.

See What The 58% Hid

A 58% increase measured across a group that 4.8 million people just walked out of is not the same 58%.

The 6:59 AM Brief

The Plan Renews Once A Year. The Numbers Move All Year.

ne money story every weekday, run through the three dials that move before your statements do.

Banks see gold back above $5,000 by year-end. Up or down, you’ll know what it means for your money before your coffee cools.

S&P futures

10-year yield

VIX

What Happened

One story, picked for the dollars in it.

What It Costs You

Translated into the numbers on your own statements.

What To Consider

One practical takeaway, before the cup cools.

Send The First Cup Free

Tomorrow's cup comes with the math.

A financial newsletter for informational purposes only. Nothing published here is financial advice. We are not licensed financial advisors. Always do your own research before making any investment decision.